excel_highlights

Unemployment rates (1978 - 1998): International Comparison

Source: Asahi N.P., 9/12/99

Remarks:

Stock Prices (1997 - 1999/200): International Comparison


Source: Asahi N.P., 12/29/99	Source: Asahi N.P., 4/18/00	Source: Asahi N.P., 3/13/01
Remarks: See <<8/31/98>> for the reasons for the world-wide fall in the stock prices around the summer of 1998.	Remarks:

Japanese Discount Rate, 1965 - 1999

Source: Asahi N.P., 7/17/99

Japanese Business Cycle, 1980 - 2000

Source: Asahi N.P., 6/20/00

Credit Expansion and Credit Crunch in Japan:
1987-1990/91 Banks lend firms aggresively.
[Low interest rate
Excessive funds available
-> Credit Expansion]
[See Plots 5: Outstanding of Loans of All Banks in Jpn (全国銀行貸出残高) and its growth rate.]

1990/91-present [See Plots 5: Outstanding of Loans of All Banks in Jpn (全国銀行貸出残高) and its growth rate.]
Banks become highly reluctant to lend.
[Prcies of assets (stock, land and real estate) that firms had purchased and relied on as collateral for further borrowing from banks fell sharply.
->Firms turn out unable to repay.
-> Bad loans, accumulated inside banks
-> Banks' equity capital was reduced when their bad loans are disposed.
(See financial statements for "equity capital" as against "debt capital.")
-> Bank share prices fell down.
-> Reluctance to lend
-> Credit Crunch: Credit or funds less available than needed by firms]

Highlights of yen_dollar exchange rate and Jpn economy:

A B

1972q2 Adjustment period: December 1971 to February 1973.

1973q1 The flexible exchange rate system started: The major currencies began to float.

1973q4 First Oil Crisis: $2.60 to $11.7 a barrel (more than fourfold increase) in a single year

1978q4 Second Oil Crisis: $12.7 to $34 a barrel (a rise by 300%) over a period of 34 months (from 1979 to October 1981)

1985q3 Plaza Agreement: Revaluation of the yen (depreciation of the dollar). [See Plots 1: Yen Exchange Rate and Jpns GDP growth rate.]

1985q4 High-yen recession: from 1986 to 1987

1988q1 High-yen boom (Heisei Boom): from 1987/88 to 1989. [See Plots 2: Jpns Stock Price and GDP growth rate; Plots 3: Oil Price and Jpns Land Price.]

1991q2 Heisei Recession: from 1990 to present. [See Plots 2: Jpns Stock Price and GDP growth rate; Plots 3: Oil Price and Jpns Land Price.]

1997q3 Unstable Asian currencies [See Plots 4: Recent Asian Stock Price and Exchange Rate Behavior.]

A	B
1972q2	Adjustment period: December 1971 to February 1973.
1973q1	The flexible exchange rate system started: The major currencies began to float.
1973q4	First Oil Crisis: $2.60 to $11.7 a barrel (more than fourfold increase) in a single year
1978q4	Second Oil Crisis: $12.7 to $34 a barrel (a rise by 300%) over a period of 34 months (from 1979 to October 1981)
1985q3	Plaza Agreement: Revaluation of the yen (depreciation of the dollar). [See Plots 1: Yen Exchange Rate and Jpns GDP growth rate.]
1985q4	High-yen recession: from 1986 to 1987
1988q1	High-yen boom (Heisei Boom): from 1987/88 to 1989. [See Plots 2: Jpns Stock Price and GDP growth rate; Plots 3: Oil Price and Jpns Land Price.]
1991q2	Heisei Recession: from 1990 to present. [See Plots 2: Jpns Stock Price and GDP growth rate; Plots 3: Oil Price and Jpns Land Price.]
1997q3	Unstable Asian currencies [See Plots 4: Recent Asian Stock Price and Exchange Rate Behavior.]